Forrest's Blog

New Property Management Permit Course!

First, I am going to shamelessly plug Americana’s Pre-Licensing Property Management Permit course that was recently approved by the Nevada Real Estate Division. Registration is now open. Just click here to view the course and/or register.

The Current Las Vegas Market

Single family residential (SFR) closings for December finished 9.4% better than November and slightly better than December 2010. Total year-to-date closed units are up just over 10% from this time last year. Traditional and Short Sale closings continue to pick up momentum over Bank Owned (REO) closings this month even as available REO listings continue their decline. Notice the trend chart below!

To Download the entire Equity Title Market Update Report – Click Here!

Market Price Changes

Bothe the median and average prices decreased during December with the median closed price of an SFR decreased by 4% to $120,000. But the real story is that 2011 closings ended up at the same level as 2009.  Now the real question is; “How much political rhetoric in 2012 will turn into political reality?”

New Property Management Permit Course!

First, I am going to shamelessly plug Americana’s Pre-Licensing Property Management Permit course that was recently approved by the Nevada Real Estate Division. Registration is now open. Just click here to view the course and/or register.

The Current Las Vegas Market

Single family residential (SFR) closings for October were down 3.9% from September but up 20% from October 2010. Total year-to-date closed units are up just over 10% from this time last year. Traditional and Short Sale closings picked up momentum over Bank Owned (REO) closings this month. Available REO listings continued to decline in October as the number of available REO listings now hovers around the 2750. Notice the trend chart below!

To Download the entire Equity Title Market Update Report – Click Here!

Available REO listings continue to decline even though we hear – almost on a daily basis – that Southern Nevada foreclosures are climbing.  SalesTraq recently reported that 100,000 homes have been foreclosed upon between 2007 and 2011, representing 18% of all homes in the Greater Las Vegas area.  However, there are plenty of forces at work to prevent the next four years from looking like the past.  In addition to upcoming changes in HARP, HAMP, and HAFA – we have AB 284 which is dealing with the ROBO signing issues.  In fact, October Notice of Defaults (NODs) have ground to a halt as a direct result of this legislation and now has quite a few folks in a panic about the future of foreclosures and short sales in Nevada.  Here’s my response to that:

There are quite a number of individuals and groups using the passing of AB284 to create an atmosphere of fear regarding the impact.  Yes, I believe that some homeowners may take advantage of the law – but not as many as some would like to think!  First, we know that buyers and sellers make more emotional decisions rather than logical or rational ones.  Most homeowners going through foreclosure or short sale proceedings just want it to be over so they can get their lives back and move on.  So, I would bet on delinquent homeowners pursuing a short sale even without an NOD filed.

 I trust that banks and perhaps other federal legislation will break through this impasse.  Moreover, banks could get around this just by not paying county property taxes on delinquent mortgages as they now are.  That would trigger tax foreclosures from the County.  We are already seeing a few HOA’s foreclose on homes.

The bottom line is that I refuse to be alarmist.  However, it would certainly make me add more traditional listings in my business model mix – just as a hedge!!

Must Watch Video on Foreclosures

“As more and more Americans face mortgage foreclosure, banks’ crucial ownership documents for the properties are often unclear and are sometimes even bogus . . . ” as reported by Scott Pelley. Click here to watch this shocking video clip from 60 MINUTES!

Market Price Changes

While the median and average prices remain soft with the median closed price of an SFR decreasing by 1.9% to $121,000.  Yet, there were noticeable increases in closed sales prices in the Northwest, the South (Areas 301-303) and in Henderson.

What About Market Performance at Various Price Points?

I’ve included an additional page of statistics specific to the Greater Las Vegas behavior at different price points!  Please take time to review page 6 of the report above and see how different the market behaves with closings above $250,000.  Please consider this information when preparing your 2012 business plan.

The Current Las Vegas Market

Single family residential (SFR) closings for September were down 12.5% from August but up 15.5% from September 2010.  Total year-to-date closed units are up just over 10% from this time last year.  Short sale closings picked up momentum over Bank Owned (REO) closing and over traditional closings.  Available REO listings declined in September as the number of available REO listings now hovers around the 2800.  Notice the trend chart below!  

 To Download the entire Equity Title Market Update Report – Click Here!

Available REO listings continue to decline even though we hear – almost on a daily basis – that Southern Nevada foreclosures are climbing.  That strongly suggests that banks, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac are taking those properties back in foreclosure proceedings and holding them off the market.  In fact, we know of quite a few instances now where Fannie Mae is renting back to the foreclosed owner for at least a year.  These institutions are using rent back and other mechanisms as an inventory management tool.  Look for this trend to continue!

Must Watch Video on Foreclosures

” As more and more Americans face mortgage foreclosure, banks’ crucial ownership documents for the properties are often unclear and are sometimes even bogus  . . . ” as reported by Scott Pelley.  Click here to watch this shocking video clip from 60 MINUTES!

Market Price Changes

While the median and average prices remain soft with the median closed price of an SFR increased 2.8% to $123,400.  There were noticeable increases in closed sales prices in both Summerlin and the Southwest that contributed to this overall median price increase, even as other areas experiences market value declines. 

What About the Phoenix/Scottsdale Market?

 I’ve included two pages of statistics specific to the Greater Phoenix/Scottsdale area to highlight similarities and differences.  There are similarities in some price points, but Phoenix/Scottsdale enjoys a much different mix of REO vs Short Sale vs Classic closings.  For example, only 33% of the Greater Phoenix/Scottsdale closings for September were REO compared to 50% for Greater Las Vegas.  What does it all mean?  Perhaps Phoenix/Scottsdale is poised for an earlier market rebound than Las Vegas!  We will just have to wait and see! 

New Property Management Permit Course!

 Finally, I am going to shamelessly plug Americana’s Pre-Licensing Property Management Permit course that was recently approved by the Nevada Real Estate Division.  Registration is now open. Just click here to view the course and/or register.

Summer Heat Only Steamed the Sales!

Single family residential (SFR) closings for August were up over 17% from July and up more than 31% from August 2010.  Short sale closings were up 25% from July as we continue to see banks streamline their short sale approval procedures and become more efficient in processing short sales.  Available REO listings declined in August as the number of available REO listings now hovers around the 3200 unit level.

While the median and average prices remain soft with the median closed price of an SFR at $120,000 – that does not represent all of the market.  For example, both Aliante and the areas around McCarran airport saw modest market price increases.  It should be noted that the average sales prices of both REO and short sale closings were lower in August than in July.  However, traditional sales closed nearly 1% higher in August with an average closed sales price of $168,555. If we look only at traditional SFR closings for August, they averaged $190,837!

Have you hugged a classic listing this week?

For the complete Equity Title Market Update Report for September 2011 – Click Here.

Bonus: A Look at the SFR Market

Some Good – Some Bad – Some Changes!

Single family residential (SFR) closings for July were down by nearly 13% from June but up 7% from July 2010.  This is the result of more closings for traditional listing and an increase in the average sales price of short sales. Despite renewed momentum for REO closings, we are not seeing any real increase in the level of available REO listings which have now declined to around 3300 units.

 This week the media will certainly leap upon the drop in the median sales price but will miss out on the underlying good news. The median sales price of an SFR fell to $122,000 but the average price rose nearly 1% to $151,103. Better yet, the Southwest experienced a 5% increase in the average closed sales price of an SFR and Henderson enjoyed an 8% increase in their average closed sales price for an SFR. Finally, the Days on Market for July closings was 149 days compared to 165 days in June for average of 16 fewer days than in previous months. Will it be a trend? Stay tuned!

For the complete Equity Title Market Update Report for August 2011 – Click Here.

 Bonus: A Look at the Hi-Rise Market

My Most Recent Interview

Face to Face with Jon Ralston – My News 3 – KSNV, Las Vegas, NV

Summer Activity is Heating Up!

Single family residential (SFR) closings for June were nearly 17% better than May and up 8% from June 2010. The median sales price of an SFR improved to $124,500.  SFR closings for the 2nd QTR 2011 were 16% better than the 1st QTR 2011. Overall inventory held steady, but available REO inventory drifted higher and is hovering around the 3400 level.  REO closings picked up momentum at the expense of Short Sale and Classic closings!  Summerlin SFR average closed sales prices increased 14.6% over May 2011.  Condo and townhomes also enjoyed improved average closed sales prices in both the North and East areas of Greater Las Vegas.  In fact, the monthly absorption rate for condos and townhomes is 35% compared to 31% for SFRs.

Note that as of July 1st, SB-273 impacts potential deficiency judgments related to certain second loans associated with foreclosures and short sales.  There are more legislative changes to follow!  Please remember to use your cell phones “hands-free” and to refrain from texting while in your car!

Finally, make sure that you and your clients are drinking extra water during this hot spell!!

For the complete Equity Title Market Update Report for June 2011 – Click Here.

Let’s Talk Inventory!

Single family residential (SFR) closings for May were nearly 1% better than April and 7.6% up from May 2010. The median sales price of an SFR improved to $126,000.  Overall inventory held steady, but available REO inventory drifted higher and is approaching the 3400 level.  Meanwhile Classic Closings continue to have the momentum as REO and Short Sale Closings continue to decline!  The Henderson area benefitted from increases in average closed sales prices for both SFR and Condo/Townhouse sales. 

Again, keep in mind that based on the 2010 Census—Nevada will gain a fourth Congressional seat. To keep up with Reapportionment & Redistricting or the current Legislative Session, please visit: http://www.leg.state.nv.us/.

For the complete Equity Title Market Update Report for June 2011 – Click Here.

Let’s Talk Shadow Inventory!

 The entire discussion of “Shadow Inventory” is reminiscent of the Shakespearean comedy, “Much Ado About Nothing”.  First, let’s remain cognizant of the fact that banks and mortgage companies have demonstrated their ability to manage bank owned inventory levels in this market.  They have done this by delaying foreclosure proceeding after issuing a Notice of Default.  They can elect to redirect the potential foreclosure into a short sale transaction, or even agree to a deed-in-lieu.  Fannie Mae has even exercised their option to foreclose upon a property and then lease it back to the previous owner.  So there are many ways that are available to banks who want to make a business decision to manage REO inventory levels in order to stabilize closed sales prices.

NAR recently released their First Quarter 2011 report for the Las Vegas Area.  Click here to download.  This reports contains a wide range of good economic information, but the last page of the report is the most interesting!  Nevada ranks dead last on the list of states in terms of “months of shadow inventory”!  New Jersey ranks #1! 

The Case for Traditional Listings Continues

This month we continue to isolate SFR closings from the Residential Resale market to gain a different perspective on the Greater Las Vegas real estate market.  The “Closed Sales Trend by Type” report on page 1 of this report illustrates the momentum that Classic sales continue to enjoy when compared to REO and Short Sale closings. 

Thirty-two percent (32%) of all May SFR closings were classic or traditional sales.  By looking only at SFR closings it can be seen that only 37% of traditional SFR sales were cash deals.  Therefore, 63% of all SFR closings were financed with conventional loans leading the way.  Notice too that VA loans make up 8% of this market segment compared to 5% when all property types are included.

Average Classic closing prices this month were 30% higher than Short Sale closings and 74% higher than REO closings.  Both REO and Short Sales average sales prices fell in May; however, Classic Closings went from an average of $199,280 in April to $208,085 in May—nearly a 4.5% improvement!