Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – December 2016

paris-mugWhy Homeownership Needs a Trump Presidency!

Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR). He recently contributed an article and opinion in Forbes titled: “How Trump’s Presidency Could Impact Real Estate”.  The challenges and opportunities that the Trump administration will face are clearly articulated in this article.  This is a “must read” for anyone with an interest in ensuring that hard working Americans regain the opportunity to achieve the American Dream of homeownership.  The past eight years has placed that Dream out of reach for far too many!

Click here to read the Lawrence Yun article that appeared in Forbes last month!

NAR recently reported that the rate of homeownership was at its lowest rate since 1965 as depicted in the chart below provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.  Of course, it may be worse than that as it does not appear that there is any historical data earlier than 1965.  How ironic is it that we are experiencing the lowest interest rates in our lifetime and that has only resulted in lower rates of homeownership?  We had a higher rate of ownership in 1979-1980 when interest rates were 18-21% and when it would have been cheaper to buy a home on your American Express card than by obtaining a bank loan.  Oh, there was greater inflation then and appears to be little to none now. Really? Perhaps that’s what happens when the government removes food and energy from the CPI index?

Homeownership Rate for the United States

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It seems that the rate of homeownership began this precipitous decline prior to the market peak of 2006 and before the bubble burst.  How have hard working Americans been failed by governmental efforts to fix the broken economy of the past eight to ten years? Freddie and Fannie failed! HVCC, MHA, HAMP, HARP, TRID, and Dodd-Frank efforts have all failed to improve homeownership rates.  The creation of, flawed structure and implementation of the CFPB have only exacerbated those previous failures.  Small banks are saddled with onerous compliance costs under Dodd-Frank while the “mega-banks” treat compliance costs and exorbitant fines as a cost of doing business.  The result leaves the hard working American consumer being punished for the financial sins of failed systems, legislation, governmental institutions and quasi-governmental institutions.

The two charts below show just how tight credit has become and reflects the challenges of requiring higher and higher FICO scores to obtain a loan today compared to eight years ago.  Credit is as tight now as when we were faced with 18% interest rates!  How is that even possible?  No one wants to return to the days of consumers being able to falsify incomes and only having to “fog a mirror” to obtain a loan.  Yet credit has been tightened to the point where there is virtually no risk for the lenders today.  Both scenarios are patently wrongheaded! It’s time to bet on hard working Americans rather than the failed systems that got us here in the first place.  We sorely need to move from a fragile economic recovery to a robust, sustainable recovery that puts people back to work with good wages, salaries, and better economic opportunities.

Mortgage Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

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Household Financial Obligations as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

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We need a new administration and Congress that can begin to turn this around as badly as we did when President Reagan took office in 1981! We need to critically reform or “nuke” legislation, systems, and agencies that have contributed to the demise of homeownership rates in America this past eight years! I am confident that 2017 will be our 1981! So let’s fasten our seat belts for an exceptional year of real estate ahead!

Click Here for more Economic Research Charts from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis!

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

November Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were down only 1.1% from October but 31%higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR rose 3.5% to $240,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR was improved by 4% at $278,254.  Residential closed sales remain 6.6% better than at this time in 2015.  Condo/Townhome sales are up 16.6% over 2015 while Hi-rise closings are up 10.2% compared to last year.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

The first chart shows that the average closing prices of and SFR have increased by 10% since December 2015 despite having trended sideways a great deal this year.  However, check out the subdivision units and price trends charts to see which communities are down and which ones are up.  Finally, the last chart shows that we have made some headway on correcting the over pricing that has permeated Las Vegas real estate market prices.

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Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – November 2016

voted2016Please Remember to Vote Tuesday!

It may have been a challenging few years and a slow recovery for all of us, but we are not faced with the Great Depression of 1929 and the fallout that led to President Roosevelt’s victory over Herbert Hoover.  Incumbent Hoover had fallen out of favor with the electorate and only amassed 59 electoral votes in what was a bitter election year campaign. Here is Will Rogers’ commentary on election day 1932:

 

“There is only one redeeming thing about this whole election. It will be over at sundown, and let everybody pray that it’s not a tie, for we couldn’t go through with this thing again.

And, when the votes are counted, let everybody, including the candidates, get into a good humor as quick as they got into a bad one.

Both gangs have been bad sports, so see if at least one can’t redeem themselves by offering no alibis, but cooperate with the winner, for no matter which one it is the poor fellow is going to need it.

So cheer up. Let’s all be friends again. One of the evils of democracy is you have to put up with the man you elect whether you want him or not. That’s why we call it democracy.” Daily Telegram #1953, Nov. 7, 1932

 

Click Here for more Will Rogers humor on politics!

 

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

October Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were down 10.6% from September but 7.5% higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR dipped 0.79% to $232,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR was virtually unchanged and remains at $267,563.  Yet, SFR closed sales are 6.6% better than at this time in 2015.  Condo/Townhome sales are up 14.2% over 2015 while Hi-rise closings are up 12.4% compared to last year.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

The first chart shows that the average closing prices of and SFR continue to go sideways during this period of slow market value improvement.  However, check out the subdivision units and price trends charts to see which communities are down and which ones are up.

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I look forward to seeing many of you next Saturday evening at the Bellagio for the GLVAR Installation of Officers and Directors for 2017!

 

 

 

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Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – October 2016


wdm-2Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

September Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were down 5.75% from August but 7.9% higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR dipped 0.49% to $233,850 while the average closed sales price of an SFR dropped 0.70%, falling from $269,222 to $267,327.  Yet, SFR closed sales are 6.5% better than at this time in 2015.  Condo/Townhome sales are up 16.3% over 2015 while Hi-rise closings are up 13.9% compared to last year.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

We have mentioned in previous blog posts that the Greater Las Vegas Real Estate Market continues to struggle more that many other markets with conventional financed transactions.  The first chart below shows the Las Vegas market for all price points.

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So which price points enjoy momentum in this market even as other price points are flat or falling?  Here they are:

 


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Finally,  here are how selected communities have performed over the past six months.

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Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – September 2016

DSC_0115 - CopyNew Residential Purchase Agreement – Biggest Change in Ten Years!

It was ten years ago that we first introduced a standard Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS (GLVAR) Residential Purchase Agreement (RPA) that was generally adopted by most brokerages in Las Vegas. The upcoming version of the RPA introduces the most substantive changes since its adoption.  Personally, I like many of the changes, but not everyone will agree with me.  That’s okay!  Reality is that each legislative session enacts new laws that often require changes to a number of our standard GLVAR forms.  This is why a number of other states have gone to statewide forms for real estate transactions.  State associations such as the California Association of REALTORS (CAR) and the Arizona Association of REALTORS  (AAR) are the authors and keepers of those forms.  That makes so much sense as it is the state associations that tend to monitor federal, state, and local legislation and ordinances.  The attorneys in those associations then update their state forms shortly after their legislative sessions conclude.  Ten years ago we tried and failed to launch a set of statewide real estate forms in Nevada.  However, given how much the business of real estate is impacted each year by federal and state legislation, perhaps it’s time for state and local real estate leadership to review this issue.  I will gladly volunteer some of my own time if there is an interest.

Las Vegas Market Overview

August Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales are up 9.3% from July and 8.2% higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR retreated to $235,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR dropped 2.4%, falling from $275,885 to $269,222.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

We have mentioned in previous blog posts that the Greater Las Vegas Real Estate Market continues to struggle more that many other markets with conventional financed transactions.  The first chart below shows the Las Vegas market for all price points.

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The next charts show the contrast between conventional financing below the $250,000 price point and then for the price range from $250,000 to $750,000.

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So which price points enjoy momentum in this market even as other price points are flat or falling?  Here they are:

 

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So the price ranges from $250,000 to $750,000 are the clear winners.  Have you “Moved Your Cheese” yet and adapted to these market changes?

Have a Safe and Happy Labor Day!

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, Mortgages, political, Pricing | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – August 2016

IMAG0021Property Management Permit Pre-Licensing Course!

Once again it’s time to shamelessly plug Americana’s Pre-Licensing Property Management Permit course – again! This course is excellent – even for those who just want to learn more about Landlord Tenant laws in Nevada.  Do you want to learn how to prevent or spot embezzlement – before it becomes a problem?  Would you like to learn foolproof techniques for reconciling your trust accounts? There are lots of “how to” for brokers and licensees who want to become property managers and do it right!  Boring is NOT a word anyone has ever used to describe this course.  Registration is now open.  See you there.

Just click here to view the course and/or register.

The class runs Aug 18th through Aug 20th.  Walk-ins are welcome on Thursday beginning at 7:30 am, Aug 18th in our Summerlin office at 10777 W. Twain Ave., Suite 333!

Las Vegas Market Overview

July closed sales are down 13% from June and 11% lower than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a Single Family Residence (SFR) inched up from $235,000 to $236,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR dipped slightly, falling from $276,482 to $275,885.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

Much of the drop in closed units was in those homes under $500,000.  Sales remained steady strong in the $500,000 – $750,000 price ranges.  The charts below will also show how the Las Vegas market compares to both Southern California and Phoenix/Scottsdale in the sale of Single Family Residence.

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CA-blogpics-july2016_Page_03The good news this month is the reduction in over priced homes:

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Let’s Take a Closer Look at the Market Value trends Phoenix/Scottsdale, Southern CA, and Greater Las Vegas !

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Categories: Market Stats, MLS, Pricing, Property Management | 2 Comments

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – July 2016

balloonsThe Summer and the Market are Heating Up!

Overall closings for 2016 remain 8.1% ahead of last year’s closings. The median closed sales price of a Single Family Residence (SFR) improved to $235,000 in June resulting in a 2.6% increase while the average closed sales price of an SFR nudged upward again to $276,482 representing a 1.4% increase over May and a 9.2% gain in the past two months.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

June market momentum heated up as SFR closings bettered last month by 6.3% and June 2015 by 6.7%  Similarly,  2016 condo/town-home sales and hi-rise sales are showing strength over last year’s sales.

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blog-pics-nv-june-2016_Page_12So What Has Changed!

The Las Vegas real estate market may be recovering in a slow, but steady manner.  However, financed transactions are being concluded much more smoothly than in the past with conventional, FHA, and VA loans all participating.  The loan success rate is in spite of some frustratingly low appraisals!  Perhaps lenders, title professionals, and REALTORS have adapted to the new, ever changing TRID environment?  Either way, this is very welcome news! Check the charts below!

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Over Pricing Update!

Many homes continue to languish in a market that witnesses over pricing of approximately 60% of the SFR available inventory.  The good news is that there are signs of this market beginning to correct that problem as some of that was squeezed out this past month and over pricing is less.  Newer inventory has been priced much closer to the market and results in opened escrows within a very few days in many cases while the older, over priced inventory simply accumulates more days on the market.  Notice the days on market in some of the communities below.

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Let’s Have a Fantastic July!

 

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, Pricing, Property Management | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – June 2016


cropped-cropped-birthday201211042.jpgWhat a Difference a Month Makes!

Overall closings for 2016 are approximately 10% higher than last year. The median closed sales price of a Single Family Residence (SFR) improved to $229,000 in May resulting in a 3.5% increase while the average closed sales price of an SFR soared to $272,795 representing a 7.8% increase over April, which was apoplectic to say the very least.  It brings to mind that wonderful Dinah Washington hit song: “What a difference a day makes!”  Be sure to download this month’s update and charts as they have undergone both a face lift and a tummy tuck to reflect market changes and the new capabilities of Matrix.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

May witnessed renewed market momentum as SFR closings bettered last month by 6.9% and May 2015 by 11.5%  Similarly, condo/town-home sales and hi-rise sales also participated in the May rally.  But it was the luxury market that made the greatest one month gain after a disconcerting performance in April.

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Taking a Closer Look at May Results!

One challenge overcome by this month’s results was the noticeable increase in conventional closed sales.  Perhaps this is a sign that financing has turned a corner in Las Vegas?  The last component that would potentially make a substantial difference would be consistent, rather than erratic appraisals.  In fact, we’ve had a rash of low appraisals this past month, making me wonder if some appraisers aren’t back to “down market” appraisal adjustments.  We certainly hope not!  However, we must exercise some caution when looking at all the “up” stats this month and “up” numbers.  We can see that those increases were not uniformly enjoyed in all communities.  Check the charts below!

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Finally, here is a new, broader look at the Greater Las Vegas real estate market!

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Please remember to Vote in the Clark County primaries!

 

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, political, Pricing | Leave a comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – May 2016

DarrenWelshDist20Property Management Permit Pre-Licensing Course!

Once again it’s time to shamelessly plug Americana’s Pre-Licensing Property Management Permit course – again! This course is excellent – even for those who just want to learn more about Landlord Tenant laws in Nevada.  Do you want to learn how to prevent or spot embezzlement – before it becomes a problem?  Would you like to learn foolproof techniques for reconciling your trust accounts? There are lots of “how to” for brokers and licensees who want to become property managers and do it right!  Boring is NOT a word anyone has ever used to describe this course.  Registration is now open.  See you there.

Just click here to view the course and/or register.

The class runs May 19th through May 21st.  Walk-ins are welcome on Thursday beginning at 7:30 am, May 19th in our Summerlin office at 10777 W. Twain Ave., Suite 333!

Las Vegas Market Overview

Overall closings for 2016 are approximately 6% higher than last year.  The median closed sales price of a Single Family Residence (SFR) leveled out at $221,365 in April resulting in a 0.62% increase while the average closed sales price of an SFR floundered, falling from $259,109 to $253,133, thus sustaining a 2.3% drop from March.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

April was synonymous for aggressive over pricing despite the soft, declining closed sales prices.  Even the luxury market with homes selling for one million and over were not spared a most challenging month.  In fact, luxury sales fell 37.5% in just one month!  Take a look at the following charts:

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Let’s Take a Closer Look at the April Price Drops!

One challenge appears to be the lack of strong traction in obtaining and closing conventional loans.  While both Arizona and California are routinely seeing conventional loans making up at least 45% of their closings, Las Vegas is struggling to close conventional loans consistently in the 32-33% range.  It also appears that this same issue may be why the luxury market halted this month.  That is, many of the high end closings have been cash in the past, but the market experienced more attempts to obtain jumbo loan financing that simply failed.

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Prices by Price Point by Year!

Both reports and charts were given a makeover this month, in part due to the transition from Fusion to Matrix.  Some of my favorite statistics used features that are in Fusion but not in Matrix.  However, every challenge is merely an opportunity in disguise.  Therefore, Matrix offered some unique features not found in Fusion – and they became most helpful.  Also, the market has changed to the point where there is less reason to focus as much detail on distress property listings and sales.  One of new features assists in providing these next few charts where we can look at closed sales by price points to see the price point shift in the market.  Here they are illustrating how sales have behaved over the past ten years based on the price bands that were chosen:

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Finally, we have added two charts showing a six month history of sales and price movement in select communities.  This helps to show just how local all real estate remains in Las Vegas.  It is easily shown that different communities are selling at paces and patterns that may be dramatically different from one another.  Please let me know which new charts you like or dislike!

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Pricing it correctly by a Seller who understands – – – Click Here for the Video!

 

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Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – April 2016

redrock1Las Vegas Market Overview

The short version!  Demand UP! Prices DOWN! Inventory DOWN! Closings UP! March Madness was not exclusive to NCAA basketball.  The median closed sales price of a Single Family Residence (SFR) dipped slightly from $220,700 to $220,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR dropped 1.6% from $263,262 to $259,109.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

March SFR closings were 32% better than February and 3% better than March 2015.  The result is continues slow, but steady improvement over 2015 closings as demand picks up even as prices remain soft.  

Slow but Steady Improvement over 2015!

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Over Pricing

Over pricing is alive and well.  Newer listings are being priced closer to market values and are therefore getting into escrows very quickly while the those priced poorly are languishing in this market.  So now we have higher absorption and fewer months of available inventory.  Now reduce that inventory by about 75% – because that about the percentage of available SFR homes that are over priced – and we have just created a scarcity of marketable inventory.  What the hell does all of that mean?? Well, I’m suggesting that the “marketable” inventory will most likely receive multiple offers and/or back-up offers as a result of the massive over pricing.  Those sellers will be less likely to extend escrows to be very sensitive to buyer delays in the escrow process.  Further, the lack of marketable inventory caused by the over pricing will inevitably push a number of buyers and prospective buyers into the new home market to avoid over pricing headaches!

Overpricing

As discussed above, the Greater Las Vegas now only enjoys a 2.6 months supply of inventory, which represents a one month loss compared to last month.   The charts below also show which areas improved in market value or declined in market value.

Last Month/This Month Comparison of Market Changes by Area

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The Listing Presentation – One More Time!

Maybe this short video should be added to your listing presentation??

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, Pricing | 2 Comments

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – March 2016


Anaheim-Hills-Office-11-1024x683Las Vegas Market Overview

February brought a great deal of activity to the Las Vegas market.  The median closed sales price of a Single Family Residence (SFR) improved to $220,700 from $218,650 from while the average closed sales price of an SFR jumped 6% to $263,262. There was a slight uptick in bank owned REO sales even as the available REO properties declined.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

February continues on a track that is resulting in slow, but steady improvement over 2015 closings.  Conventional loan financing is also beginning to bounce back after the lackluster month we experienced in January.  There is an overall 3.5 months supply of inventory in Clark County at this point.

Slow but Steady Improvement over 2015!

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Year-to-Date closings for 2016 are already 7.5% ahead of February 2015.  The average closed sales price of an SFR in Clark County is up 7.87% over February 2015 and 18.85% over February 2014.  See the charts below.  However, not all areas appreciated at the same rate.  For example, the South (301-303) is up 22.83% over the past two years while Henderson is up only 7.06% for that same period.  This is a gentle reminder that all real estate is very local and that we cannot use broad market numbers or changes when looking at a particular area or community.

Three Year Comparison of Market Changes by Area

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Click Here to Watch a Great REALTOR video ad in Canada!

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, Pricing | 1 Comment

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