Author Archives: Forrest

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update * July 2017

Greater Las Vegas Real Estate Market Overview

June 2017 Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were up 4.3% from May and 12.3% better than June 2016. Year to date 2017 closed sales are now up nearly 11% over 2016.  The median closed sales price of a SFR edged up 3.4% from $250,000 to $258,500 while the average closed sales price of an SFR remained flat at $296,080.  Residential resale activity was brisk again in June leaving us with approximately 1.5 months of inventory. SFR closings,  Condos/Townhome closings, Hi-Rise sales closings and Luxury Sales closings continued to make gains as well.

So what does it mean when the median price posts significant improvement while the average sales prices remain flat.  Simply, we are selling more homes at higher prices, but in those higher price ranges – the sales are closing a slightly lower prices.  This could be the result of squeezing out the over pricing or lower than expected appraisals.  Either way 50% of the units closed in June were at prices above $258,500.  The charts below also show that 65% of the SFR units closed in October 2016 were below $250,000.  However, as of this month only 55% of the Greater Las Vegas closings are below $250,000.  That can be seen in better detail by reviewing the “Closed Units by Price Point” charts below.

 

Click Here for Individual Las Vegas Market Charts

Click Here for the Current Market Update

 

 Over Pricing Index

There were 3675 SFR closings this past month. The average Days on Market (DOM) for all SFR closings was 36 days, but check this out:

  • 2535 SFR closings (69%) were 30 days or less
  • 2199 SFR closings (60%) were 20 days or less
  • 1632 SFR closings (44%) were 10 days or less

Over Pricing Fun Facts:

There are currently thirteen available SFR listings that have been actively on the market for over 1000 days, with the longest one being over 1500 days.  One has been on the market since April 2014 with Public Remarks as follows: “. . . Hurry it won’t last in this market . . .” And guess what? Yes, that’s right – the current listing price is the same price it was listed at over 1100 das ago.  Let’s see! April 2014? That was two real estate license renewal periods ago for me! LOL

Another one listed earlier in 2014 states: ” . . . Seller is looking for offers . . .”  Certainly, this seller is still looking!

The chart below shows that Over Pricing is steady with 61% of all available Single Family Residential listings being over priced.  That means that only about 2100 of the available 5400 SFR homes are priced correctly.  In short, there is less than 3 weeks of marketable inventory.  Is this leading to multiple offers, especially in the price range below $300,000?  Of course it is!  So consider . . .

Know the New Home Community Inventory

First, with 61% of the six weeks of SFR inventory over priced – we are left with about 15 days of marketable inventory in residential resale inventory.  Thus be sure to preview the various new home communities in the areas you normally market or where you buyers are looking.  There is some standing inventory, but even that is going quickly.  A couple of new home communities are nearly sold out after being open for only one week.  Still, a new home purchase may be a great alternative for you buyer who keeps losing multiple offers in an overheated resale market.  Keep in mind that if a builder is sitting on completed inventory, they are motivated to move those homes so they can build more.  You might even find excellent incentives there for your buyers.  Besides, many buyers are going to new home communities with or without you due to current market conditions and even frustration over the residential resale market conditions.

Underwritten Pre-Approval

We all know that having our buyers pre-approved is far better than having them just pre-qualified.  However, some lenders are able to have your buyer underwritten pre-approved.  That means they have completed all paperwork and submitted all required documents even before identifying the home they plan to purchase.  The only things they are waiting for at this point is a contract, inspections, appraisal and insurances for the most part. The underwritten pre-approval should be signed by the underwriter and this could save a couple of weeks in the loan process.  Under the theory that sometimes “we need to slow down to speed up”, this just might provide your buyer a solid advantage in a competitive, multiple offer situation!

And just maybe it’s time to break out this great video one again . . .

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, Pricing | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update * June 2017

Greater Las Vegas Real Estate Market Overview

May 2017 Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were up 22.4% from April and 14.5% better than May 2016. Year to date 2017 closed sales are now up 10.5% over 2016.  The median closed sales price of a SFR edged up from $249,000 to $250,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR increased by 3.5% to $296,503.  Residential resale activity was brisk again in May leaving us with approximately 1.6 months of inventory and only about 5400 available SFR listings.  It was a grand slam for resale closings this month with SFR closings,  Condos/Townhome closings, Hi-Rise sales closings and Luxury Sales closings all making big gains this month as can be seen below.

In fact, activity was so good that some homeowners were “borrowing” open house signs to bring in the traffic and conduct garage sales.  Looks like more REALTORS need to get out there and help the public with those Open Houses and Garage Sales! LOL


Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Individual Las Vegas Market Charts

 Over Pricing Index

The chart below shows that Over Pricing is steady with 61% of all available Single Family Residential listings being over priced.  That means that only about 2100 of the available 5400 SFR homes are priced correctly.  In short, there are only about 3 weeks of marketable inventory.  Is this leading to multiple offers, especially in the price range below $300,000?  Of course it is!  So consider . . .

Underwritten Pre-Approval

We all know that having our buyers pre-approved is far better than having them just pre-qualified.  However, some lenders are able to have your buyer underwritten pre-approved.  That means they have completed all paperwork and submitted all required documents even before identifying the home they plan to purchase.  The only things they are waiting for at this point is a contract, inspections, appraisal and insurances for the most part. The underwritten pre-approval should be signed by the underwriter and this could save a couple of weeks in the loan process.  Under the theory that sometimes “we need to slow down to speed up”, this just might provide your buyer a solid advantage in a competitive, multiple offer situation!

And just maybe it’s time to break out this great video one again . . .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NL-nS9Tte0

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, Pricing, RE Practice | 1 Comment

Siena Golf Course Town Hall Meeting

Siena HOA Town Hall Meeting – May 8, 2017

Categories: Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update * May 2017

Greater Las Vegas Real Estate Market Overview

April 2017 Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were down 10.65% from March and 0.3% less than April 2016.  Some of the slippage is likely due to the fact that the last two days of April fell on the weekend.  However, year to date 2017 closed sales remain up 9% over 2016.  The median closed sales price of a SFR improved 2.89% to $249,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR also increased by 0.77% to $286,365.  Residential resale activity continued to be brisk in April leaving us with less than 2 months of inventory and less than 5700 available SFR listings.

 

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Individual Las Vegas Market Charts

Market Shrinkage

The bank owned (REO) segment of the market experienced significant contraction this month, falling from 6% of the closings to just over 4%.  Additionally, homes priced below $250,000 continue to make up an increasingly smaller segment of this market.  Below we can see that closed units below $250,000 have contracted by 6% and that volume shrunk by 5%.

 

 

 Over Pricing Index

The charts below  are an attempt to get a better handle on the current over pricing situation.  The charts look at a rolling 12 month average of original listing prices and compares that to a rolling 12 months of closings.  It only include SFR data for properties that had an original list price between $250K – $1M in an effort to avoid any skewing from the high end listings (over $1M).   The CON/TWN chart includes data for properties has had an original list price below $1M.  The rolling 12 month averages provide a smoother trend line than using actual monthly numbers.  It looks like we were getting the over pricing under control in the latter part of 2013 and early 2014, but since then the over pricing gap has increased with the average amount of over pricing per SFR being nearly $42,000. 

Siena Golf Course Update

There has been a lot of discussion about the future of the Siena Golf Course over the past few weeks.  On May 3, 2017 there was a special Board of Directors meeting devoted to this one issue and it afforded residents to offer comments and have a serious dialog on this subject.  The meeting was well attended and most productive under the proactive leadership of the current Siena HOA Board.  The event was videotaped and uploaded to YouTube in four segments.

 

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, Pricing, Property Management | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Update – April 2017

 Greater Las Vegas Real Estate Market Overview

March 2017 Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were up 41.5% from February and 13.6% better than March 2016, making it the best March since 2012. Year to date 2017 closed sales are now up 12.3% over 2016.  The median closed sales price of a SFR improved 0.83% to $242,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR also increased by 2.7% to $284,173.  Residential resale activity was brisk in March leaving us with less than 3 months of inventory and less than 5900 available SFR listings.  All property types participated in the March gains.  Condos/Townhomes were up 24.3% over February, while Hi-Rise sales improved by 28.6% and Luxury Sales by 80%


Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Individual Las Vegas Market Charts

 Over Pricing Index

The charts below  are an attempt to get a better handle on the current over pricing situation.  The charts look at a rolling 12 month average of original listing prices and compares that to a rolling 12 months of closings.  It only include SFR data for properties that had an original list price between $250K – $1M in an effort to avoid any skewing from the high end listings (over $1M).   The CON/TWN chart includes data for properties has had an original list price below $1M.  The rolling 12 month averages provide a smoother trend line than using actual monthly numbers.  It looks like we were getting the over pricing under control in the latter part of 2013 and early 2014, but since then the over pricing gap has increased with the average amount of over pricing per SFR being approximately $41,000. 

Currently 6% of all available SFR listings have been on the market for over 30 days, 52% over 45 days, and 47% over 60 days.  That’s remarkable given there is only 2 to 3 months of available inventory, but with 6% over priced – there is only about 4 weeks of marketable inventory. 


Categories: Market Stats, MLS, Pricing | Leave a comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – March 2017

sienapracticeholeThe 79th (2017) Session of the Nevada Legislature!

First, there are 257 Assembly Bills and another 238 Senate Bills that are posted on the Nevada Legislature website.  AB-235 (Click Here) was introduced last week and enacts the Uniform Commercial Real Estate Receivership Act. (BDR 3-714).  To keep up to date with Legislative activity in Carson City, click on the link below.

 

2017 Nevada Legislature Calendar and Videos

 

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

February 2017 Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were up 4.6% from January, but we are beginning 2017 with a 11.2% increase in closed sales over 2016.  The median closed sales price of a SFR improved 0.84% to $240,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR also increased by 1.8% at $276,713. February saw more activity and closings than January.  SFR Months of Inventory is 2.8 months at present, but condo and townhome inventory has fallen to 1.5 months.

blogpics-02-2017_page_01blogpics-02-2017_page_11

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Individual Las Vegas Market Charts

New Over Pricing Index

The charts below  are an attempt to get a better handle on the current over pricing situation.  The charts look at a rolling 12 month average of original listing prices and compares that to a rolling 12 months of closings.  It only include SFR data for properties that had an original list price between $250K – $1M in an effort to avoid any skewing from the high end listings (over $1M).   The CON/TWN chart includes data for properties has had an original list price below $1M.  The rolling 12 month averages provide a smoother trend line than using actual monthly numbers.  It looks like we were getting the over pricing under control in the latter part of 2013 and early 2014, but since then the over pricing gap has increased with the average amount of over pricing per SFR being approximately $39,000. 

Currently 61% of all available SFR listings have been on the market for over 30 days, 52% over 45 days, and 47% over 60 days.  That’s remarkable given there is only 2 to 3 months of available inventory, but with 61% over priced – there is only about 4 weeks of marketable inventory. 

blogpics-02-2017_page_02

blogpics-02-2017_page_03

Where Were the Sales?

The chart below clearly illustrates that closed sales were not consistent across Greater Las Vegas this past month.  For example, Spring Valley, Anthem Country Club, and Providence faced decreases in closed sales – even as Aliante, Summerlin, and Mountain’s edge saw improvement.  Therefore, depending on the community, months of inventory for SFR homes ranges from 2 to 8 months.  It’s also clear that some communities had very short average days on the market (most notably Silverado Ranch and Peccole Ranch), while others such as Anthem Country Club and Siena were just over 100 days average on the market.  Some of that also suggests that some of the older inventory closed this past month.  That can also been seen by the drop in the average list price for available SFRs!

blogpics-02-2017_page_12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, political, Pricing | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – February 2017

hole12The 79th (2017) Session of the Nevada Legislature Begins on Monday!

First, there are 102 Assembly Bills and another 102 Senate Bills that are posted on the Nevada Legislature website.  Expect the tone and dynamics of this session to be vastly different from 2015.  Let’s see how many 2015 bills are modified or repealed!  Will we see any movement on the change to permanent daylight time?  That’s really in the hands of the Congress at this point.  There is one bill that could change real estate educational requirements.

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

January 2017 Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were down 21.2% from December, but we are beginning 2017 with a 16.3% increase in closed sales over January 2016.  The median closed sales price of a SFR improved 1.3% to $235,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR also decreased by .4% at $271,738.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

January experienced a typical seasonal drop in closed units but there were nearly 4400 new listings taken during January.  This resulted in a small increase in overall months of inventory available.  In fact, SFR Months of Inventory is just short of 3 months at present, but condo and townhome inventory has fallen to 1.7 months.  Although closed sales dipped, the number of homes going into escrow improved by nearly 400 units in January.

 

blogpics-jan-2017_page_01

blogpics-jan-2017_page_09

Where Were the Sales?

The chart below clearly illustrates that closed sales were not consistent across Greater Las Vegas this past month.  For example, Spring Valley, Inspirada, and Iron Mountain Ranch all witnessed pronounced decreases in closed sales – even as Aliante and Mountain’s edge saw slight improvement.  Therefore, depending on the community, months of inventory for SFR homes ranges from 2 to 20 months.  It’s also clear that some communities had very short average days on the market (most notably Centennial Hills), while others such as Anthem Country Club and Red Rock Country Club were just shy of 100 days average on the market.  Some of that also suggests that some of the older inventory closed this past month.  That can also been seen by the drop in the average list price for available SFRs!

blogpics-jan-2017_page_10

blogpics-jan-2017_page_12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, political, Pricing | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Update – January 2017

lasvegas2017-2Welcome to 2017 and the Political Challenges Ahead!

First, I want to reach out and thank Congressman Joe Heck for all of the support he has provided our REALTOR community.  Then I want to congratulate Senator Catherine Cortez Masto on being seated in the Senate as the first Latina Senator!  Now it’s time to begin reviewing Bill Draft Requests (BDRs) as we prepare for the 79th session of the Nevada Legislature that opens next month! Which bills from the 2015 Session will be revisited in one fashion or another?

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

December 2016 Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were up 4.4% from November and about 1% higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR dipped 2.1% to $235,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR also decreased by 2% at $272,716.  The median closed sales price for an SFR improved by 7.48% in 2016 while the average closed sales price of an SFR increased by 9.78%.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

Residential closed sales units were up 8.1% compared to 2015.  SFR closed units were up $6.31%,  Condo/Townhome sales ended up 16.6% over 2015 while Hi-rise closings are up 11.4% compared to last year.  Only luxury market closed sales dipped in 2016 and by 4.13%  The last chart below shows the months of inventory for the luxury market.  A “months of inventory” column has been added to the Communities profile chart and can be found in both reports above.

blogpics-dec-2016_page_09

blogpics-dec-2016_page_15

 

blogpics-dec-2016_page_16

 

blogpics-dec-2016_page_17

 

blogpics-dec-2016_page_18

 

 

 

Categories: Market Stats, political, Pricing | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – December 2016

paris-mugWhy Homeownership Needs a Trump Presidency!

Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR). He recently contributed an article and opinion in Forbes titled: “How Trump’s Presidency Could Impact Real Estate”.  The challenges and opportunities that the Trump administration will face are clearly articulated in this article.  This is a “must read” for anyone with an interest in ensuring that hard working Americans regain the opportunity to achieve the American Dream of homeownership.  The past eight years has placed that Dream out of reach for far too many!

Click here to read the Lawrence Yun article that appeared in Forbes last month!

NAR recently reported that the rate of homeownership was at its lowest rate since 1965 as depicted in the chart below provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.  Of course, it may be worse than that as it does not appear that there is any historical data earlier than 1965.  How ironic is it that we are experiencing the lowest interest rates in our lifetime and that has only resulted in lower rates of homeownership?  We had a higher rate of ownership in 1979-1980 when interest rates were 18-21% and when it would have been cheaper to buy a home on your American Express card than by obtaining a bank loan.  Oh, there was greater inflation then and appears to be little to none now. Really? Perhaps that’s what happens when the government removes food and energy from the CPI index?

Homeownership Rate for the United States

fredgraph

It seems that the rate of homeownership began this precipitous decline prior to the market peak of 2006 and before the bubble burst.  How have hard working Americans been failed by governmental efforts to fix the broken economy of the past eight to ten years? Freddie and Fannie failed! HVCC, MHA, HAMP, HARP, TRID, and Dodd-Frank efforts have all failed to improve homeownership rates.  The creation of, flawed structure and implementation of the CFPB have only exacerbated those previous failures.  Small banks are saddled with onerous compliance costs under Dodd-Frank while the “mega-banks” treat compliance costs and exorbitant fines as a cost of doing business.  The result leaves the hard working American consumer being punished for the financial sins of failed systems, legislation, governmental institutions and quasi-governmental institutions.

The two charts below show just how tight credit has become and reflects the challenges of requiring higher and higher FICO scores to obtain a loan today compared to eight years ago.  Credit is as tight now as when we were faced with 18% interest rates!  How is that even possible?  No one wants to return to the days of consumers being able to falsify incomes and only having to “fog a mirror” to obtain a loan.  Yet credit has been tightened to the point where there is virtually no risk for the lenders today.  Both scenarios are patently wrongheaded! It’s time to bet on hard working Americans rather than the failed systems that got us here in the first place.  We sorely need to move from a fragile economic recovery to a robust, sustainable recovery that puts people back to work with good wages, salaries, and better economic opportunities.

Mortgage Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

fredgraph-2

Household Financial Obligations as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

fredgraph-4

We need a new administration and Congress that can begin to turn this around as badly as we did when President Reagan took office in 1981! We need to critically reform or “nuke” legislation, systems, and agencies that have contributed to the demise of homeownership rates in America this past eight years! I am confident that 2017 will be our 1981! So let’s fasten our seat belts for an exceptional year of real estate ahead!

Click Here for more Economic Research Charts from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis!

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

November Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were down only 1.1% from October but 31%higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR rose 3.5% to $240,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR was improved by 4% at $278,254.  Residential closed sales remain 6.6% better than at this time in 2015.  Condo/Townhome sales are up 16.6% over 2015 while Hi-rise closings are up 10.2% compared to last year.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

The first chart shows that the average closing prices of and SFR have increased by 10% since December 2015 despite having trended sideways a great deal this year.  However, check out the subdivision units and price trends charts to see which communities are down and which ones are up.  Finally, the last chart shows that we have made some headway on correcting the over pricing that has permeated Las Vegas real estate market prices.

blogpics-2016-nov-nv_page_08

blogpics-2016-nov-nv_page_09

blogpicsoctober-2016_page_15

blogpics-2016-nov-nv_page_12

 

 

 

Categories: Market Stats, political, Pricing | 3 Comments

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – November 2016

voted2016Please Remember to Vote Tuesday!

It may have been a challenging few years and a slow recovery for all of us, but we are not faced with the Great Depression of 1929 and the fallout that led to President Roosevelt’s victory over Herbert Hoover.  Incumbent Hoover had fallen out of favor with the electorate and only amassed 59 electoral votes in what was a bitter election year campaign. Here is Will Rogers’ commentary on election day 1932:

 

“There is only one redeeming thing about this whole election. It will be over at sundown, and let everybody pray that it’s not a tie, for we couldn’t go through with this thing again.

And, when the votes are counted, let everybody, including the candidates, get into a good humor as quick as they got into a bad one.

Both gangs have been bad sports, so see if at least one can’t redeem themselves by offering no alibis, but cooperate with the winner, for no matter which one it is the poor fellow is going to need it.

So cheer up. Let’s all be friends again. One of the evils of democracy is you have to put up with the man you elect whether you want him or not. That’s why we call it democracy.” Daily Telegram #1953, Nov. 7, 1932

 

Click Here for more Will Rogers humor on politics!

 

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

October Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were down 10.6% from September but 7.5% higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR dipped 0.79% to $232,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR was virtually unchanged and remains at $267,563.  Yet, SFR closed sales are 6.6% better than at this time in 2015.  Condo/Townhome sales are up 14.2% over 2015 while Hi-rise closings are up 12.4% compared to last year.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

The first chart shows that the average closing prices of and SFR continue to go sideways during this period of slow market value improvement.  However, check out the subdivision units and price trends charts to see which communities are down and which ones are up.

blogpicsoctober-2016_page_08

blogpicsoctober-2016_page_09

blogpicsoctober-2016_page_15

blogpicsoctober-2016_page_16

I look forward to seeing many of you next Saturday evening at the Bellagio for the GLVAR Installation of Officers and Directors for 2017!

 

 

 

Categories: Market Stats, political, Pricing | Leave a comment

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: