political

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – March 2017

sienapracticeholeThe 79th (2017) Session of the Nevada Legislature!

First, there are 257 Assembly Bills and another 238 Senate Bills that are posted on the Nevada Legislature website.  AB-235 (Click Here) was introduced last week and enacts the Uniform Commercial Real Estate Receivership Act. (BDR 3-714).  To keep up to date with Legislative activity in Carson City, click on the link below.

 

2017 Nevada Legislature Calendar and Videos

 

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

February 2017 Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were up 4.6% from January, but we are beginning 2017 with a 11.2% increase in closed sales over 2016.  The median closed sales price of a SFR improved 0.84% to $240,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR also increased by 1.8% at $276,713. February saw more activity and closings than January.  SFR Months of Inventory is 2.8 months at present, but condo and townhome inventory has fallen to 1.5 months.

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Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Individual Las Vegas Market Charts

New Over Pricing Index

The charts below  are an attempt to get a better handle on the current over pricing situation.  The charts look at a rolling 12 month average of original listing prices and compares that to a rolling 12 months of closings.  It only include SFR data for properties that had an original list price between $250K – $1M in an effort to avoid any skewing from the high end listings (over $1M).   The CON/TWN chart includes data for properties has had an original list price below $1M.  The rolling 12 month averages provide a smoother trend line than using actual monthly numbers.  It looks like we were getting the over pricing under control in the latter part of 2013 and early 2014, but since then the over pricing gap has increased with the average amount of over pricing per SFR being approximately $39,000. 

Currently 61% of all available SFR listings have been on the market for over 30 days, 52% over 45 days, and 47% over 60 days.  That’s remarkable given there is only 2 to 3 months of available inventory, but with 61% over priced – there is only about 4 weeks of marketable inventory. 

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Where Were the Sales?

The chart below clearly illustrates that closed sales were not consistent across Greater Las Vegas this past month.  For example, Spring Valley, Anthem Country Club, and Providence faced decreases in closed sales – even as Aliante, Summerlin, and Mountain’s edge saw improvement.  Therefore, depending on the community, months of inventory for SFR homes ranges from 2 to 8 months.  It’s also clear that some communities had very short average days on the market (most notably Silverado Ranch and Peccole Ranch), while others such as Anthem Country Club and Siena were just over 100 days average on the market.  Some of that also suggests that some of the older inventory closed this past month.  That can also been seen by the drop in the average list price for available SFRs!

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Categories: Market Stats, MLS, political, Pricing | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – February 2017

hole12The 79th (2017) Session of the Nevada Legislature Begins on Monday!

First, there are 102 Assembly Bills and another 102 Senate Bills that are posted on the Nevada Legislature website.  Expect the tone and dynamics of this session to be vastly different from 2015.  Let’s see how many 2015 bills are modified or repealed!  Will we see any movement on the change to permanent daylight time?  That’s really in the hands of the Congress at this point.  There is one bill that could change real estate educational requirements.

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

January 2017 Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were down 21.2% from December, but we are beginning 2017 with a 16.3% increase in closed sales over January 2016.  The median closed sales price of a SFR improved 1.3% to $235,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR also decreased by .4% at $271,738.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

January experienced a typical seasonal drop in closed units but there were nearly 4400 new listings taken during January.  This resulted in a small increase in overall months of inventory available.  In fact, SFR Months of Inventory is just short of 3 months at present, but condo and townhome inventory has fallen to 1.7 months.  Although closed sales dipped, the number of homes going into escrow improved by nearly 400 units in January.

 

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Where Were the Sales?

The chart below clearly illustrates that closed sales were not consistent across Greater Las Vegas this past month.  For example, Spring Valley, Inspirada, and Iron Mountain Ranch all witnessed pronounced decreases in closed sales – even as Aliante and Mountain’s edge saw slight improvement.  Therefore, depending on the community, months of inventory for SFR homes ranges from 2 to 20 months.  It’s also clear that some communities had very short average days on the market (most notably Centennial Hills), while others such as Anthem Country Club and Red Rock Country Club were just shy of 100 days average on the market.  Some of that also suggests that some of the older inventory closed this past month.  That can also been seen by the drop in the average list price for available SFRs!

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Categories: Market Stats, MLS, political, Pricing | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Update – January 2017

lasvegas2017-2Welcome to 2017 and the Political Challenges Ahead!

First, I want to reach out and thank Congressman Joe Heck for all of the support he has provided our REALTOR community.  Then I want to congratulate Senator Catherine Cortez Masto on being seated in the Senate as the first Latina Senator!  Now it’s time to begin reviewing Bill Draft Requests (BDRs) as we prepare for the 79th session of the Nevada Legislature that opens next month! Which bills from the 2015 Session will be revisited in one fashion or another?

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

December 2016 Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were up 4.4% from November and about 1% higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR dipped 2.1% to $235,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR also decreased by 2% at $272,716.  The median closed sales price for an SFR improved by 7.48% in 2016 while the average closed sales price of an SFR increased by 9.78%.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

Residential closed sales units were up 8.1% compared to 2015.  SFR closed units were up $6.31%,  Condo/Townhome sales ended up 16.6% over 2015 while Hi-rise closings are up 11.4% compared to last year.  Only luxury market closed sales dipped in 2016 and by 4.13%  The last chart below shows the months of inventory for the luxury market.  A “months of inventory” column has been added to the Communities profile chart and can be found in both reports above.

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Categories: Market Stats, political, Pricing | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – December 2016

paris-mugWhy Homeownership Needs a Trump Presidency!

Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR). He recently contributed an article and opinion in Forbes titled: “How Trump’s Presidency Could Impact Real Estate”.  The challenges and opportunities that the Trump administration will face are clearly articulated in this article.  This is a “must read” for anyone with an interest in ensuring that hard working Americans regain the opportunity to achieve the American Dream of homeownership.  The past eight years has placed that Dream out of reach for far too many!

Click here to read the Lawrence Yun article that appeared in Forbes last month!

NAR recently reported that the rate of homeownership was at its lowest rate since 1965 as depicted in the chart below provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.  Of course, it may be worse than that as it does not appear that there is any historical data earlier than 1965.  How ironic is it that we are experiencing the lowest interest rates in our lifetime and that has only resulted in lower rates of homeownership?  We had a higher rate of ownership in 1979-1980 when interest rates were 18-21% and when it would have been cheaper to buy a home on your American Express card than by obtaining a bank loan.  Oh, there was greater inflation then and appears to be little to none now. Really? Perhaps that’s what happens when the government removes food and energy from the CPI index?

Homeownership Rate for the United States

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It seems that the rate of homeownership began this precipitous decline prior to the market peak of 2006 and before the bubble burst.  How have hard working Americans been failed by governmental efforts to fix the broken economy of the past eight to ten years? Freddie and Fannie failed! HVCC, MHA, HAMP, HARP, TRID, and Dodd-Frank efforts have all failed to improve homeownership rates.  The creation of, flawed structure and implementation of the CFPB have only exacerbated those previous failures.  Small banks are saddled with onerous compliance costs under Dodd-Frank while the “mega-banks” treat compliance costs and exorbitant fines as a cost of doing business.  The result leaves the hard working American consumer being punished for the financial sins of failed systems, legislation, governmental institutions and quasi-governmental institutions.

The two charts below show just how tight credit has become and reflects the challenges of requiring higher and higher FICO scores to obtain a loan today compared to eight years ago.  Credit is as tight now as when we were faced with 18% interest rates!  How is that even possible?  No one wants to return to the days of consumers being able to falsify incomes and only having to “fog a mirror” to obtain a loan.  Yet credit has been tightened to the point where there is virtually no risk for the lenders today.  Both scenarios are patently wrongheaded! It’s time to bet on hard working Americans rather than the failed systems that got us here in the first place.  We sorely need to move from a fragile economic recovery to a robust, sustainable recovery that puts people back to work with good wages, salaries, and better economic opportunities.

Mortgage Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

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Household Financial Obligations as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

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We need a new administration and Congress that can begin to turn this around as badly as we did when President Reagan took office in 1981! We need to critically reform or “nuke” legislation, systems, and agencies that have contributed to the demise of homeownership rates in America this past eight years! I am confident that 2017 will be our 1981! So let’s fasten our seat belts for an exceptional year of real estate ahead!

Click Here for more Economic Research Charts from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis!

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

November Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were down only 1.1% from October but 31%higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR rose 3.5% to $240,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR was improved by 4% at $278,254.  Residential closed sales remain 6.6% better than at this time in 2015.  Condo/Townhome sales are up 16.6% over 2015 while Hi-rise closings are up 10.2% compared to last year.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

The first chart shows that the average closing prices of and SFR have increased by 10% since December 2015 despite having trended sideways a great deal this year.  However, check out the subdivision units and price trends charts to see which communities are down and which ones are up.  Finally, the last chart shows that we have made some headway on correcting the over pricing that has permeated Las Vegas real estate market prices.

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Categories: Market Stats, political, Pricing | 3 Comments

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – November 2016

voted2016Please Remember to Vote Tuesday!

It may have been a challenging few years and a slow recovery for all of us, but we are not faced with the Great Depression of 1929 and the fallout that led to President Roosevelt’s victory over Herbert Hoover.  Incumbent Hoover had fallen out of favor with the electorate and only amassed 59 electoral votes in what was a bitter election year campaign. Here is Will Rogers’ commentary on election day 1932:

 

“There is only one redeeming thing about this whole election. It will be over at sundown, and let everybody pray that it’s not a tie, for we couldn’t go through with this thing again.

And, when the votes are counted, let everybody, including the candidates, get into a good humor as quick as they got into a bad one.

Both gangs have been bad sports, so see if at least one can’t redeem themselves by offering no alibis, but cooperate with the winner, for no matter which one it is the poor fellow is going to need it.

So cheer up. Let’s all be friends again. One of the evils of democracy is you have to put up with the man you elect whether you want him or not. That’s why we call it democracy.” Daily Telegram #1953, Nov. 7, 1932

 

Click Here for more Will Rogers humor on politics!

 

Greater Las Vegas Market Overview

October Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales were down 10.6% from September but 7.5% higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR dipped 0.79% to $232,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR was virtually unchanged and remains at $267,563.  Yet, SFR closed sales are 6.6% better than at this time in 2015.  Condo/Townhome sales are up 14.2% over 2015 while Hi-rise closings are up 12.4% compared to last year.

Click Here for the Current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

The first chart shows that the average closing prices of and SFR continue to go sideways during this period of slow market value improvement.  However, check out the subdivision units and price trends charts to see which communities are down and which ones are up.

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I look forward to seeing many of you next Saturday evening at the Bellagio for the GLVAR Installation of Officers and Directors for 2017!

 

 

 

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Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – September 2016

DSC_0115 - CopyNew Residential Purchase Agreement – Biggest Change in Ten Years!

It was ten years ago that we first introduced a standard Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS (GLVAR) Residential Purchase Agreement (RPA) that was generally adopted by most brokerages in Las Vegas. The upcoming version of the RPA introduces the most substantive changes since its adoption.  Personally, I like many of the changes, but not everyone will agree with me.  That’s okay!  Reality is that each legislative session enacts new laws that often require changes to a number of our standard GLVAR forms.  This is why a number of other states have gone to statewide forms for real estate transactions.  State associations such as the California Association of REALTORS (CAR) and the Arizona Association of REALTORS  (AAR) are the authors and keepers of those forms.  That makes so much sense as it is the state associations that tend to monitor federal, state, and local legislation and ordinances.  The attorneys in those associations then update their state forms shortly after their legislative sessions conclude.  Ten years ago we tried and failed to launch a set of statewide real estate forms in Nevada.  However, given how much the business of real estate is impacted each year by federal and state legislation, perhaps it’s time for state and local real estate leadership to review this issue.  I will gladly volunteer some of my own time if there is an interest.

Las Vegas Market Overview

August Single Family Residential (SFR) closed sales are up 9.3% from July and 8.2% higher than at this time last year.  The median closed sales price of a SFR retreated to $235,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR dropped 2.4%, falling from $275,885 to $269,222.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

We have mentioned in previous blog posts that the Greater Las Vegas Real Estate Market continues to struggle more that many other markets with conventional financed transactions.  The first chart below shows the Las Vegas market for all price points.

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The next charts show the contrast between conventional financing below the $250,000 price point and then for the price range from $250,000 to $750,000.

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So which price points enjoy momentum in this market even as other price points are flat or falling?  Here they are:

 

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So the price ranges from $250,000 to $750,000 are the clear winners.  Have you “Moved Your Cheese” yet and adapted to these market changes?

Have a Safe and Happy Labor Day!

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, Mortgages, political, Pricing | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – June 2016


cropped-cropped-birthday201211042.jpgWhat a Difference a Month Makes!

Overall closings for 2016 are approximately 10% higher than last year. The median closed sales price of a Single Family Residence (SFR) improved to $229,000 in May resulting in a 3.5% increase while the average closed sales price of an SFR soared to $272,795 representing a 7.8% increase over April, which was apoplectic to say the very least.  It brings to mind that wonderful Dinah Washington hit song: “What a difference a day makes!”  Be sure to download this month’s update and charts as they have undergone both a face lift and a tummy tuck to reflect market changes and the new capabilities of Matrix.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

May witnessed renewed market momentum as SFR closings bettered last month by 6.9% and May 2015 by 11.5%  Similarly, condo/town-home sales and hi-rise sales also participated in the May rally.  But it was the luxury market that made the greatest one month gain after a disconcerting performance in April.

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Taking a Closer Look at May Results!

One challenge overcome by this month’s results was the noticeable increase in conventional closed sales.  Perhaps this is a sign that financing has turned a corner in Las Vegas?  The last component that would potentially make a substantial difference would be consistent, rather than erratic appraisals.  In fact, we’ve had a rash of low appraisals this past month, making me wonder if some appraisers aren’t back to “down market” appraisal adjustments.  We certainly hope not!  However, we must exercise some caution when looking at all the “up” stats this month and “up” numbers.  We can see that those increases were not uniformly enjoyed in all communities.  Check the charts below!

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Finally, here is a new, broader look at the Greater Las Vegas real estate market!

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Please remember to Vote in the Clark County primaries!

 

Categories: Market Stats, MLS, political, Pricing | Leave a comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – December 2015

Lee-BarrettCongratulations to Lee Barrett

Congratulations to Lee Barrett on being appointed our newest Nevada Real Estate Commissioner on November 1st.  I’m thrilled for Lee and already looking forward to the upcoming December hearings!  Oh – click on Lee’s pic for a short tribute to his career in real estate as depicted on his license plate! See you soon!

Las Vegas Market Overview

Inventory levels dropped sharply this past month, but that is normal this time of year.  The median closed sales price of a Single Family Residence (SFR) remained flat at $220,000 while the average closed sales price of an SFR rose 3.6% to $268,557.  Thus the Greater Las Vegas market enjoys a four months supply of inventory based upon the current supply and demand numbers. The fact that the average price is on the rise while the median price is flat suggests that while there an equal number of closings above and below $220,000 – that the closings above $220,000 are generally higher than last month.  We will look at this in more detail below.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

Overall closings year to date for 2015 are roughly 5% higher than last year despite a slowdown in closed units during November.  Remember that 2011 was the last time that this market experienced the number of closed units being higher than the previous year!

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A Look at Prices by Price Point by Year!

The next few graphs and charts illustrate the movement of closed sales by price point.  For example, we see that in 2011 over 33% of the closings were under $100,000 – but that has dropped to nearly 3% in 2015.  You may want to click on each item below to see a larger, more readable version.

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The next two charts below attempts to create a visual of the shift from lower priced closings in 2010 and 2011 to the higher price points in the years following.

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Finally, here are the median and average closed sales price changes over the past six years.  Have you made your adjustments to these changes?  Forty-seven percent (47%) of all 2015 year to date closings were in the price range of $200,000 – $400,000.  That compares to only 15% in 2011 when over one third of all closings were under $100,000.   Perhaps you may need to consider an adjustment to your 2016 business plan based on these findings?

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Categories: Market Stats, MLS, political, Pricing | 1 Comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – August 2015

Elections-Guide-Cover-234x300 Shout-out to GLVAR Leadership!

Congratulations on the recent approval of a much needed new set of Bylaws!!!  The issue driving the need for new bylaws emerged during Dave Tina’s presidency, was worked on in earnest during Heidi Kasama’s term, with resolution and closure coming during Keith Lynam’s tenure!  So at least three years of GLVAR leadership and committees have had to work extremely hard to bring this to closure – and they are deserve huge kudos from members for their diligence to this most important task.

Please keep in mind that GLVAR elections are coming up very quickly.  It’s critically important to take time to find out what each candidate stands for and what they have done previously to be running for their current position.  Then make the time to vote for the candidates of your choice because there are many more important issues facing GLVAR as we move forward.  Personally I applaud anyone who volunteers their time on the Board, committee, workgroup, or PAG.  Volunteers are the backbone of GLVAR, regardless of their position on any particular issue.

I’m not endorsing any particular candidates at this time, but I always look for future leaders that are dedicated to the members and do not bring a personal agenda with them into the GLVAR Boardroom!  Then I check to see if they are a PSF/RPAC Major Donor and contributing financially in support of the political goals of GLVAR and NVAR.  Having said that – we have an amazing slate of exceptionally qualified and dedicated individuals to choose from this year!  Good luck to all of you!

Once you have voted, begin looking for just one committee that you could enjoy serving on.  Your perspective and input on committees is more valuable than you think – especially if you are a working REALTOR – actually engaged in real estate transactions on a regular basis!

 Las Vegas Market Overview

Market values slumped slightly even as buyers continue to ignore the summer heat wave and aggressively make offers. Inventory availability for SFR inventory has begun to vary by area more than in the past.  The North part of Greater Las Vegas has only two months of available inventory while the Southwest, Summerlin, and Henderson have 2.8 months of available inventory

Over pricing has decreased somewhat, but there is still enough over pricing to generate multiple offers and back up offers on those listings that are properly priced.  In turn, many sellers with good back up offers lined up are no longer as willing to extend an escrow for the buyer who cannot close per the contract.  So here is a question.  Is is time that we replace our existing “C” status with something that suggests that the home is “Under Contract but accepting Backup offers”?  Quite a number of other MLS jurisdictions have eliminated the concept of Contingent status in favor of Under Contract/Backups.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

July SFR closings were up 3.9% over June and nearly 21% higher than July 2014.  The median sales price of an SFR dipped to $218,000, while the average price dropped to $258,607 for a 0.5% loss over last month.  However, the drop in market value was somewhat disproportionate in that both REO and Short Sale closing increased noticeably while traditional closing dropped by 1%.

Finally, review the over pricing chart below.  Why?  One can see all the potential tell tale signs of a potential bubble.  But there is no bubble and ignore reports of bubbles!  Why? Because we can thank conservative appraisals and conservative loan underwriting standards for providing a check and balance against such a bubble!  There are no more NINJA loans!  Having said this – appraisals are coming in higher and stronger – a clear sign that distressed sales are having less and less influence on appraisals.

Market Value Changes by Zip Code

The study below looked at the average closed sales price by zip code by comparing the twelve month period from July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014 with the twelve month period from July 1, 2014 to June 30, 2015.  Not all zip codes are shown as there were not enough closing to get a true picture of market value change year over year.  Even a few of the zip codes shown here may have skewed percent changes due to the low number of closings.

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Categories: Market Stats, MLS, political, Pricing | Leave a comment

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update – June 2015

NVLegislatureThe 2015 Nevada Legislative Session is Sine Die!

Yes it’s finally over!  As Mark Twain said:

“No man’s life, liberty, or property are safe while the legislature is in session.”

However, progress was made in the areas of construction defect litigation, squatters, HOA foreclosures, miniature horses in the workplace, and more new license plate choices.  I’m not sure about the ethics in government bill after watching some of the heated sessions featuring varying degrees of what could be considered mud slinging.  Will the local paparazzi get their own drones and test the new privacy laws?  Then there’s the historic tax hike. Yikes! Yet, I’m excited that the Assembly Joint Resolution (AJR-4) was passed to pave the way for Nevada to remain on Daylight Time year round beginning 2017 should the U. S. Congress approve it.  Why am I excited?  Because that is “best for business” as it allows more hours of Open House time during the winter months!  Yes! Yes! Yes!

 Las Vegas REO Market Update

First, let’s address the current myth that we are about to be flooded with more REO foreclosures.  The chart below challenges that rhetoric that is running rampant out there.  The Las Vegas market is still seeing about 8 percent of all closings being REO, but I don’t see the banks dumping foreclosure inventory into the Las Vegas market.  It would make more sense for them to continue selling bulk or renting until they are ready to flush that inventory.

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 Las Vegas Market Overview

Market values dipped despite demand remaining constant in May. Some areas were sluggish, but check out the activity in the Northwest where closed units of SFRs was up even though the average price of an SFR dipped approximately $10,000.  There’s only 2.7 months of inventory, but only about 30% of that is priced right – so there’s only about 2-3 weeks of marketable inventory.  Basically a home comes on the market properly priced and is in escrow within 30 days – or it comes on well overpriced and takes 300 days to get into escrow.  Financing remains strong and cash sales are beginning to dwindle.

Click Here for the current Market Update

Click Here for Additional Las Vegas Market Update Charts

May posted solid market performance despite not ending up at last year’s level.  The median sales price of an SFR slipped 0.7% to $211,000, while the average price dropped to $245,758.

Review the charts below and look at the strength in the following market areas:

  • Luxury Sales (Closed sales over $1,000,000)
  • High Rise Sales – which are gaining momentum

Finally, review the over pricing chart below.  Why?  One can see all the potential tell tale signs of a potential bubble.  But there is no bubble and ignore reports of bubbles!  Why? Because we can thank conservative appraisals and conservative loan underwriting standards for providing a check and balance against such a bubble!  There are no more NINJA loans!  In fact, are we ready for even more changes to loan underwriting and reporting that will launch on August 1, 2015 by CFPB?  Well, stay tuned . . .

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BlogPics_Page_4Las Vegas Market Overpricing

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Categories: Market Stats, MLS, political, Property Management | Leave a comment

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